Around the world with Team Norway: Navigating offshore wind in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea lies in the Atlantic Ocean and is bordered by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia, Sweden, and the North and Central European Plain. According to the industry organisation Norwegian Energy Partners (NORWEP), which is active in the region, these countries are in different stages of offshore wind development.

“Germany and Denmark already have well-established offshore wind industries. They are far ahead, with hundreds of turbines in operation. However, if we move north and east, most other countries in the region are still in the early stages. Sweden and Finland have only a handful of turbines, while Poland stands out in the short term,” says Jørgen Brandt Theodorsen, Director Renewable Energy at NORWEP.

NORWEP is part of the official Team Norway for offshore wind, alongside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Innovation Norway and Export Finance Norway (Eksfin). The organisation has a clearly defined objective: to support and assist in the internationalisation of the Norwegian energy industry.

In Poland, the authorities have awarded 5.9 GW of capacity for offshore wind, which corresponds to investments of approximately NOK 35 to 50 billion (roughly USD 3 to 4.3 billion) per GW.

“To put that into perspective, 1 GW typically involves between 70 to 100 turbines. These are large-scale projects. For example, Ørsted’s project in Poland is the largest infrastructure investment in the country since World War II. That gives you an idea of the scale and the resources required to develop offshore wind,” says Theodorsen.

The first licences for projects in Poland were awarded in 2020, and the first turbines are planned to be installed offshore by 2026 and onwards.

“Poland’s high level of investment is partly due to the need to replace coal, which still constitutes a large part of the country’s energy mix. Poland has a population of around 40 million, which means high energy demand, much of which currently comes from heavy industry. Offshore wind is a crucial part of the country’s energy transition and meeting the rising and future energy demand,” he says.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all have potential, but are at different stages of development. Lithuania has already conducted an auction for 700 MW and will soon launch a new round.

“Estonia is further ahead than Latvia and has already awarded several projects, including one to the Norwegian company Deep Wind Offshore from Haugesund. The collaboration we’ve had with Estonia, including through the embassy and local business networks like Invest in Estonia and Estonian Wind Power Association (EWPA), has been very rewarding to see in action,” says Theodorsen.

Latvia, on the other hand, is further behind in development. Although it has some onshore wind power, there are no concrete offshore wind projects awarded or in operation yet. However, the Baltic nation is planning a joint project with Estonia, called ELWIND, which will provide 1 GW of renewable power on each side of the border. Latvia has greater technical offshore wind potential than its neighbours due to its larger coastal areas.

Although it currently only has a few turbines in operation, Finland is planning a major auction for 6 GW. Offshore wind farms in Finland face challenges relating to ocean depth and sea ice conditions, as Finland has seasonally freezing seas.

“This will require technological adaptations, but the government is providing resources to expand the offshore wind power business in Finland and remove significant risks related to offshore wind power construction,” says Theodorsen.

Sweden, on the other hand, has been a very exciting market on paper, but development has been fragmented.

“They’ve had a ‘wild west’ approach, where anyone can apply for a licence. The problem is that this requires over 30 different approvals, making the process unpredictable and inefficient. However, we’re now seeing signs that Sweden wants to structure this better, which could make them a key player in the region,” he says.

Recently 13 offshore wind farms were not granted final approval, which was quite a setback.

Geopolitics and security have become increasingly important, especially after Russia went to war on Ukraine. Many countries in the region want to become less dependent on Russian energy, and offshore wind provides an excellent opportunity for this.

“The Baltic Sea’s proximity to Russia raises concerns about the security of offshore wind infrastructure. Subsea cables are especially vulnerable, as damage could disrupt regional energy supplies. To address this, developers are implementing advanced monitoring systems, reinforcing cables and collaborating on protective measures,” says Theodorsen.

Military authorities in Sweden have cancelled several offshore projects due to potential security risks, including interference with defence systems. According to Theodorsen, regional collaboration is crucial, with countries sharing surveillance data and aligning strategies to safeguard critical infrastructure.

“At the same time, it’s important to balance various interests such as fisheries and environmental protection, which make the projects complex,” he explains.

Norway has leading expertise in several key areas, particularly in concrete platforms and deepwater technology, which may be relevant for solving ice-related challenges.

“Norway already plays an important role, especially on the supply side. We have a significant competitive advantage with our experience from the oil and gas industry. This expertise can easily be transferred to offshore wind, particularly when operating in challenging conditions. For instance, Norwegian companies like DOF specialise in offshore operations and have already been involved in major projects such as Hywind Tampen. They are well-positioned to take on a larger role in building offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea,” says Theodorsen.

Norway has a lot to offer on the technology side as well. For example, Nexans, which manufactures cables, and Aker Solutions, which develops foundations, are well-recognised leaders within their respective fields.

All the countries bordering the Baltic Sea have ambitious renewable energy goals. Offshore wind is one of the most accessible resources to achieving those goals, and the Baltic region has the potential to become a leading energy player in offshore wind in Europe.

“The future looks very promising,” concludes Theodorsen.